Photo credit: Geeska
Sudan’s war is increasingly intertwined with the longstanding rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea, diplomatic sources told Ayin, raising fears that renewed tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara could further regionalize the conflict.
AllAfrica.com reports that three sources familiar with the region’s diplomacy told Ayin that Ethiopian officials have expressed growing concern over Lt–Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s military and political relationships with Eritrea, Egypt and Tigray, accusing the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leadership of interfering in Ethiopian security affairs. At the same time, mounting evidence suggests the Ethiopian authorities are supporting the national army’s opponents, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as a possible counterweight.
A defiant Ethiopian premier, Abiy Ahmed, made such a claim in July during the 30th regular session of Ethiopia’s House of People’s Representatives. “Ethiopia has no fear of any alliance involving Eritrea, the TPLF, and Sudan, even if other actors join them,” claiming unnamed foreign actors were backing this alliance. “The worst is that Tigrayan youth are being sold into the Sudan war after being taken by force,” Abiy said during the same event, adding that young people from Tigray were losing their lives in a conflict “they know nothing about.” According to an open-source data analyst, Eritrea’s Massawa Airport has likely been an entry point for arms shipments to Sudan’s army and Tigray fighters under the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPFL). Ayin, however, has not been able to verify this claim independently.
On the other side, the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) has identified a spike in activity and arms at the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) base in Asosa last week. In just under a week, HRL identified newly arrived light technical vehicles at the base, a sixfold increase from previously. According to Yale HRL, there are enough brand-new vehicles at the ENDF base to support a brigade, with the ability to carry 750 to 1,000 soldiers. HRL warns that the RSF is more likely to launch an imminent attack on Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile State, due to this imminent buildup.
Jonas Horner, a visiting fellow with the Africa Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Ayin that the military infrastructure being developed on both sides of Sudan’s borders risks linking the Sudanese conflict directly to tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
BHorner warned that the consequences of a direct Ethiopian-Eritrean confrontation would extend well beyond their borders. “The outbreak of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia would instantly regionalize Sudan’s own war,” he said, expanding the battlefield across Sudan’s already-fluid eastern borders and further complicating any hope for a negotiated outcome. “With each of the country’s seven direct neighbours engaged to varying degrees in Sudan’s war, Sudan already provides an active theatre for playing out regional rivalries.”
Ethiopian officials, according to sources who attended the meetings with regional stakeholders, have not concealed their frustration with Burhan. They accuse him of interfering in Ethiopia’s security affairs and say Sudan’s military cooperation with Eritrea, Egypt and Tigray threatens Ethiopian interests.
Ethiopia has long been concerned about armed groups operating from Sudanese territory, particularly groups associated with the TPLF. Ethiopian officials recalled Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Sudan during the war – the first visit by an African leader after the conflict erupted when he reportedly requested that Sudan disarm Tigrayan fighters.
“The important thing to note here is that the internal conflicts within these countries – Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea – are bleeding into one another,” says Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory.
The increasingly close relationship between Burhan’s camp and Eritrea is also reflected in the reported relocation of former Sudanese Security Service chief Salah Mohamed Abdallah to Asmara. Three sources familiar with the matter told Ayin that Abdallah is now based in the Eritrean capital after previously residing in Cairo.
For a country already struggling to contain a war involving the army, RSF and a growing number of regional and international actors, such an escalation would further narrow the space for diplomacy.
