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Tighter EU borders and migration deals with African countries have failed to reduce the number of departures from Africa, but merely temporarily diverted irregular routes, according to a report by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD)
The ICMPD, an organization that works for the EU and European governments to develop migration policies, analysed the major mobility trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, revealing that ‘recent patterns show that intensified controls do not necessarily reduce overall mobility but instead redirect movement towards alternative, often longer and riskier routes, the report says.
In recent years, the EU has expanded its migration partnerships with African countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania. These agreements typically involve local authorities strengthening border controls to curb irregular departures toward Europe, while the EU provides financial support and invests in a wide range of development and cooperation projects in return.
At the same time, the EU revised its internal migration management framework through the Asylum and Migration Pact, a package of laws approved during the last mandate that harmonizes border procedures and establishes common rules for handling irregular arrivals across member states.
The reforms reduced access to asylum and overall arrivals to Europe. However, the situation could evolve in different ways, including the emergence of new routes – potentially toward Europe.
On several occasions, the EU has celebrated a reduction in the number of third-world country nationals, mainly from Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, arriving in Europe via African transit routes.
However, reshaping of mobility could also lead to new irregular flows towards Europe, particularly noting the impact that instability in the Middle East may have on mobility in Africa. The irregular route from the Horn of Africa via Somalia and Djibouti to Gulf countries is still one of the most used.
Data from the UN agency for migration (IOM) shows that there has been a sharp increase in departures from Sub-Saharan Africa to Gulf countries by 34% between 2024 and 2025.
