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New Zealand’s migration cycle is turning higher again, with ASB highlighting that stronger-than-expected inflows could add to demand and inflation pressures, which in turn may influence mortgage rates and borrowing capacity.
NZA reports that ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa notes that “there is growing evidence that the migration cycle is on the up” with permanent and long-term net inflows rising to
around 23,200 in the year to January 2026, up from about 14,000 a year earlier.
While this remains well below the long-run norm of roughly 50,000 annualized net inflows, the past three months have seen a rise of up to 40.9k – the strongest since April 2024 – as departures ease and more non-NZ citizens arrive from new markets such as China, India, and the Philippines. The bank highlights that Kiwi flight has effectively stalled, with departures no longer rising and expected to retrace as the domestic recovery beds in.
Taken together, the teend suggests population growth will provide more support to housing demand and rental markets through 2026, particularly in main centres that typically attract new migrants.
ASB stresses that migration data are volatile, but warns, “there is a risk that the pace of recovery (and flow through to spending demand) may be too fast for the economy to grow without generating additional inflation.”
