Photo credit: Citynews Toronto
The war the US launched against Iran could have implications for Canadians’ pocketbooks and security.
Toronto Today reports that as the conflict engulfs the broader Middle East, the following are the possible outcomes for Canada:
1) An oil boom? The war is already choking global fuel supplies. One-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow body of water that Iran has said it will block.
US President Donald Trump has responded by suggesting the US will conduct patrols to escort tankers through the strait.
In theory, limited oil supply could drive up prices and demand for Canadian crude.
2) Expensive groceries: Fen Osler Hampson, an international affairs professor at Carleton University, said wars which happen before the fall harvest season tend to have an impact on food availability in multiple countries.
War can disrupt shipments of fertilizers and the petrochemicals and fuel used in food production – particularly amid shifts linked to climate change.
3) Transportation repression: On Feb. 28, hours into the US airstrikes, the Canadian Association off Chiefs of Police wrote that “based on current intelligence, there is no indication of any imminent threat to Canada or Canadians.
However, last weekend, in the Toronto suburb of Thornhill, Ontario, 17 bullets were fired into a gym owned by Salar Gholami, who used the building to organize large protests against the regime.
4) Some American and \\israeli officials have talked of emboldening factions within Iran that have at times looked to separate or obtain more autonomy.
Hampson said there is a risk of Iran imploding, leaving various ethnic groups and militias attling for control. That could reverberate among the various Middle East diasporas in Canada.
5) Boots on the ground: Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week he could not “categorically”rule out military participation in the Middle East, adding that this was a “fundamental hypothetical.”
If done, it could endanger the lives of the 200 military personnel in the Middle East at six different locations.
6) Wider effects: The Washington Post reports that Russia is providing \Iran with intelligence on the location of US targets.
7) A democratic Iran? Many in the Iranian diaspora hope that the war will put an end to a 47-year-old regime that has committed egregious human rights abuses and sponsored terrorist groups.
