Photo credit: Toronto .com
Rising grocery costs are now a daily concern in Canada. But data-driven research is available to help consumers make smarter decisions.
Dalhousie University reports that Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) is an annual collaboration between research partners Dalhousie University, Saint Mary’s University, University of Prince Edward Island, Cape Breton University, University of Guelph, Université Laval, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan. The research team employs a suite of predictive analysis models to forecast Canadian food prices for the coming year.
The report forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6%. The average family of four is expected to spend $17,571.79 on food in 2026, an increase of up to $994.63 from last year. Food prices are 27% higher than they were five years ago. Residents in Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, and Quebec are expected to see food price increases above the national average next year.
Even though overall food prices are not expected to come down in 2026, there is some good news for consumers.
Inflation has decreased (holding around 2%), and lower interest rates allow food businesses to access more affordable loans, making expansion and acquisition easier. In a promising pivot, the US government recently rolled back tariffs on more than 200 agricultural and food products.
The One Canadian Economy Act was passed in July and should stimulate trade between provinces and strengthen domestic competition. The Grocery Code of Conduct becomes fully operational in January 2026, which will hopefully reign in corporate grocery greed (the top four chains in Canada control at least 72% of the market share). Nutrition legislation (including mandatory front-of-pack food labelling and fortifying of dairy milk with double the amount of Vitamin D) will help make healthier food options accessible to more Canadians.
