Photo credit: ABC News
In the wake of the botched agreement between Ukraine and the USA, The UK and France are trying to develop a peace plan to end the war.
The Guardian reports that Keir Starmer’s initiative announced on Sunday raises questions about whether peace is possible and on what terms, given continuing Russian hostility and uncertain US intentions.
Ukraine and Russia have both indicated they want an end to the war. But the countries remain a long way from agreement.
While the Kremlin still wants to dominate Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting for its survival – and to establish a secure independent future within the Western sphere.
A halt to US military aid would make the battlefield situation more difficult for Ukraine. Ukrainian military officers estimate that about 20% of the military hardware being used in the war comes from the US.
It is hard to see how Europe can replace everything that the US provides. The director general of the Royal United Services Institute, Rachel Ellehuus, says the US contribution is particularly important in three areas: air defence, longer-range ballistic missiles and satellite communications.
There is also the question of cost. The US has given $33.8bn in arms and ammunition and provided Kyiv with funding for a further $33.2bn to buy US-made weapons. European military aid has been at a near identical monetary level.
Though there have been discussions about creating a European-led “reassurance force” to help guarantee peace in Ukraine, it would require a ceasefire at minimum. Meanwhile, Russia has said it opposes countries that are members of NATO providing peacekeepers. Still, while it may be unable to exercise a veto over territory it does not control, its opposition would leave European troops in the country in a risky position.
Britain had been pursuing for the US to provide a “backstop” to any stabilization force in Ukraine, most likely in the form of air power, but Starmer did not extract a firm commitment from Trump in his own White House meeting with the US president on Thursday. Friday’s clash between Trump and Zelenskyy did not help matters, with the US president accusing his counterpart of “gambling with World War Three”.
The reality is that, while Trump is president, the compact that underlined European security for decades has disappeared. Europe has been able to prioritize economic development, while the US extended a growing security umbrella to almost the entire continent. Trump’s commitment to NATO is uncertain, and it is unclear if all the 100,000 US troops in Europe will remain.
